Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court Report

Likeliest grants

Paid-docket cases filed in the last 7 days, against a 4.1% base rate. An estimate, not a prediction about any case.

Paid-docket cases filed in the last 28 days, against a 4.1% base rate. An estimate, not a prediction about any case.

Every pending paid-docket case the site holds, whenever filed, against a 4.1% base rate; each re-checked against its docket today. An estimate, not a prediction about any case.

  1. 15% 4× Tomas Rey v. LCMC Health Care Partners, L.L.C. Judicial Power Is an interlocutory order that rejects a party’s claim for injunctive relief an order “refusing” an injunction that is appealable as of right under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1), or does such an order only have the “practical effect” of denying an injunction such that the appellant must make the additional showings required by Carson v. American Brands, Inc.… No. 26-618
  2. 15% 4× Merit Energy Company, LLC v. Cherry Rider, Trustee of the Cherry Rider Family Trust Judicial Power Whether Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 23 permits certification of a damages class even though the district court finds that there is no administratively feasible way to ascertain members of the proposed class. No. 26-613
  3. 12% 3× KC Transport, Inc. v. Keith Sonderling, Acting Secretary of Labor Whether a truck-repair facility that is not located at an extraction, milling, or preparation site is a “coal or other mine” under 30 U.S.C. § 802(h)(1). No. 26-607
  4. 11% 3× David A. Katz v. United States Criminal Procedure Whether, in light of this Court’s holding in Ellingburg v. United States that “MVRA restitution is criminal punishment,” the Sixth Amendment requires a jury to find the disputed facts necessary to support the sentencing court’s restitution order. No. 26-621
  5. 10% 2× NP Red Rock LLC, d/b/a Red Rock Casino Resort Spa v. National Labor Relations Board Unions Whether an employer’s benefits grant constitutes a hallmark violation supporting entry of an extreme labor remedy in the form of a Gissel bargaining order. No. 26-601
  1. 80% 19× Lee M. Zeldin, Administrator, Environmental Protection Agency v. Climate United Fund Whether the Tucker Act, 28 U.S.C. 1491(a)(1), precludes respondents from challenging in district court the termination of grant agreements by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). No. 26-589
  2. 32% 8× United States ex rel. W. Benson Chiles v. Cooke Inc. Economic Activity When a defendant commits misconduct that makes it liable to the Government for a penalty, and then covers up its misconduct to prevent the Government from assessing the penalty, has the defendant violated the “reverse false claim” provision of the False Claims Act, which prohibits “knowingly concealing or improperly avoiding” an “established duty… No. 26-593
  3. 24% 6× National Park Service v. National Trust for Historic Preservation in the United States Whether the district court erred in enjoining the ongoing renovation of the East Wing at the White House. No. 26-599
  4. 20% 5× Citibank, N.A. v. Climate United Fund Judicial Power Whether the preliminary injunction against Citibank for following the federal government’s instructions can remain in place. No. 26-594
  5. 15% 4× Tomas Rey v. LCMC Health Care Partners, L.L.C. Judicial Power Is an interlocutory order that rejects a party’s claim for injunctive relief an order “refusing” an injunction that is appealable as of right under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1), or does such an order only have the “practical effect” of denying an injunction such that the appellant must make the additional showings required by Carson v. American Brands, Inc.… No. 26-618
  1. 86% 21× United States v. Devonte Devon Jackson Miscellaneous Whether a person who becomes the first assistant after a vacancy arises is ineligible to be the acting officer under Section 3345(a)(1). No. 26-304
  2. 80% 19× Lee M. Zeldin, Administrator, Environmental Protection Agency v. Climate United Fund Whether the Tucker Act, 28 U.S.C. 1491(a)(1), precludes respondents from challenging in district court the termination of grant agreements by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). No. 26-589
  3. 78% 19× Donald J. Trump, President of the United States v. Badar Khan Suri Civil Rights Whether, notwithstanding 8 U.S.C. 1252, an alien detained pending his removal proceedings may challenge that detention in a habeas petition based on claims that also go to the validity of his being removed. No. 26-380
  4. 69% 17× United States v. Office of the New York State Attorney General Miscellaneous Whether a person who becomes the first assistant after a vacancy arises is ineligible to be the acting officer under Section 3345(a)(1). No. 26-348
  5. 67% 16× Department of the Interior v. Shoshone-Bannock Tribes of the Fort Hall Reservation Whether the United States may invoke FLPMA to dispose of land that the government previously acquired from an Indian tribe, when the statute that approved the land’s earlier purchase stated that the land “shall be opened to settlement by the proclamation of the President, and shall be subject to disposal under the homestead, town-site, stone and timber… No. 26-96
  6. 64% 16× North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc., dba Crypto.com | Derivatives North America v. Nevada Federalism Whether the CEA preempts state regulation of sports-event contracts traded on a DCM. No. 26-344
  7. 63% 15× United States v. Nicolas Talbott Civil Rights Whether a Department of War policy that generally disqualifies from military service individuals who have gender dysphoria, a history of the condition, or a history of related interventions—issued by Secretary of War Hegseth in implementing Executive Order No. 14,183— violates the equal-protection component of the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment. No. 26-272
  8. 60% 15× Donald J. Trump, President of the United States v. Neeta Thakur, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated First Amendment Whether the First Amendment prohibits the government from considering the viewpoints furthered by academic research projects when deciding whether to grant or terminate funding for those projects through competitive grant programs. No. 26-210
  9. 59% 14× PacifiCorp, an Oregon Business Corporation v. Casey Sixkiller, Director, Washington State Department of Ecology Economic Activity Whether Tracy exempts a State from dormant Commerce Clause scrutiny when state law imposes different burdens on the same product based on whether the product is sold in state or out of state. No. 26-318
  10. 59% 14× Department of Health and Human Services v. Texas Medical Association Judicial Power Whether the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. 701 et seq., authorizes courts, in Section 706(2), to enter universal vacatur of agency rules that courts have held unlawful and, if so, in what circumstances. No. 26-491

All petitions this week → · How the forecast works →

Recent arguments

Oral arguments of the last three weeks, with the Court’s recording and transcript. The lean is the chance the petitioner prevails, read from how the bench divided its words (petitioners usually win 70%); an estimate, not a prediction about any case.

  1. Tue Nov 10 Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC Argued by Sarah M. Harris, Robert E. Johnson · Lean 78% petitioner · Listen and read
  2. Mon Nov 9 Leonard W. Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc. Argued by Robert J. Mcnamara, Paul W. Hughes · Lean 16% petitioner · Listen and read
  3. Mon Nov 9 Francis Nielsen v. Kekai Watanabe Argued by Lucas M. Walker, Joshua M. Wesneski · Lean 57% petitioner · Listen and read
  4. Wed Nov 4 Eric Guerrero, Director, Texas Department of Criminal Justice, Correctional Institutions Division v. Dexter Johnson Argued by William R. Peterson, Jeremy Schepers · Lean 50% petitioner · Listen and read
  5. Tue Nov 3 St. Mary Catholic Parish, Littleton, Colorado v. Lisa Roy, in Her Official Capacity as Executive Director of the Colorado Department of Early Childhood Argued by Nicholas R. Reaves, Helen Norton, Helen Norton · Lean 64% petitioner · Listen and read
  6. Mon Nov 2 Jasmine Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office, Georgia Argued by Eric Schnapper, Stephen J. Petrany · Lean 68% petitioner · Listen and read

All arguments →

New to the Court? Start with how a case reaches it, or read what it did this week. Looking for an issue rather than a case? Search the questions presented.

Recent decisions

The Court’s most recent written opinions, argued or not.

  1. Mon Nov 9 Markwayne Mullin, Secretary of Homeland Security v. Friends of the Ruidosa Church Emergency application · Per curiam · Granted · Opinion · PDF The Government is entitled to a stay of the preliminary injunction halting border-barrier construction because it is exceedingly likely to establish that the District Court lacked jurisdiction under §102(c)(2)(A) of the Illegal Immigration…
  2. Thu Oct 22 David M. Scanlan, Secretary of State of New Hampshire v. Coalition for Open Democracy Emergency application · Granted · Jackson dissenting
  3. Wed Oct 14 Federal Communications Commission v. Sherrod Brown Emergency application · Per curiam · Granted · Opinion · PDF The Fourth Circuit’s mandamus order requiring the Federal Communications Commission to resolve an application for review within 48 hours of its entry is stayed because the order improperly interferes with the Commission’s discretion to…
  4. Wed Oct 14 National Republican Congressional Committee v. Sherrod Brown Emergency application · Per curiam · Denied as moot
  5. Wed Sep 30 Kenneth Nelsen, Warden v. Christa Gail Pike Emergency application · Granted · Sotomayor, joined by Kagan and Jackson, dissenting

All argued cases →

Upcoming at the Court

The next conferences, order lists and argument days on the Court’s calendar.

  1. Fri Nov 13 Conference 167 cases distributed
  2. Mon Nov 16 Order list Expected, from the November 13 conference
  3. Mon Nov 30 2 arguments Thomas Crowther v. Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia · Tamer S. Wassily v. Todd Blanche, Attorney General
  4. Tue Dec 1 Argument Kenneth J. Jouppi v. Alaska
  5. Wed Dec 2 2 arguments Cutberto Viramontes v. Cook County, Illinois · Eddie Grant, Jr. v. Ronnell Higgins, in His Official Capacity as Commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection
  6. Fri Dec 4 Conference 233 cases distributed

Latest orders

What the Court granted, sent back and turned away, from its order lists.

  1. Thu Nov 12 Miscellaneous order 1 denied · James Dwight Pavatt v. Oklahoma
  2. Mon Nov 9 Order list 3 GVRs · 230 denied
  3. Fri Nov 6 Miscellaneous order 1 granted · Goldman Sachs Bank USA, dba Marcus by Goldman Sachs v. Rhea Ann Brown
  4. Thu Nov 5 Miscellaneous order 1 denied · Jesse Guardado v. Richard Comerford, Secretary, Florida Department of Corrections

All order lists →

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